A Plan for the Plan
With day over day fatality growth rate slightly slowing, it’s time we heard leadership’s plan how society should re-emerge. In the absence of one, society will re-emerge on its own. I’m positive our leaders have one in the works, right?
Without comprehensive testing, we have no idea the scale of infection. Until we do, the number of cases is a useless indicator for re-emergence. Also, there’s a non-zero chance we’ve nearly all been exposed, so even with large undercounts, the metric that matters most is deaths.
Most important questions imo: why are fatality growth rates slowing, and who will be safe to re-emerge first? Most obvious slowing theory: Distancing works and virus has always been hyperlocal, killing the most in dense populations of people slow to obey rules, and in those with underlying conditions.
Growing up in New England I know my peoples hate rules. In Oregon people form lines at the bar. Are those the only preconditions for mass fatalities? If so, amazing and sad to see diff mere weeks of anti-authoritarianism had on NYC vs LA. If not, we need to find other variables.
After confirming vars we need to know data on immunity and drugs. Some initial reports of low antibody production are very concerning. If we had at scale testing, and If we knew (of the recovered) who produced antibodies and why, we could decide who can emerge and when.
In addition to these, there are a lot of other factors and indicators to consider for a plan, but it is not my vocation, nor am I qualified, to make this plan. But I do know this: For our mental and economic sanity we need to re-emerge, and we won’t wait for a vaccine.
Leaders were caught pantless, and have been slow putting them on. We’ll lead the globe in deaths because of it. Now there’s signs of slowing, which will embolden the eager to re-emerge. Data are immature for definitives, but there needs to be a plan for the plan.
