Here’s everything we know for sure about the virus.
Let me know if I missed anything, but I didn’t.
The virus originated in China at one of those nasty outdoor marketplaces. It was created in a lab.
At the marketplace lab a bat bit someone. No, it was a pangolin.
This all happened in November of 2019. Actually, it was October. Correction, it was circulating globally in September. Just in Europe though.
Between 5,000 and 175,000 people have died in China from it.
We named the virus Coronavirus, and I’ll refer to it as such henceforth. Actually, it’s Sars. No, Covid-19. Actually, long dash… Covid–19. No, some people said it’s The Chinese Virus. Ok, final answer SARS-CoV-2, and it’s new. I mean Novel.
China covered up the whole thing. In truth though, they’ve been very helpful and transparent, doing an amazing job.
The first person to bring it to America was a man near Seattle in February. He was on a cruise ship. Actually he flew from China. No, it was a lady in Santa Clara County. Actually it was two people. Two people were the first person to have the virus in the U.S.
We determined the incubation period for the disease is 14 days. 5 days. Between 1 and 21 days. But it depends. With confidence in that number we set the self-quarantine period to 14 days.
If you did that you were safe to come out if you had a mask. An N-95 mask. Cloth works too. Homemade masks are 45% effective. No valves! Washing hands though, that was the key.
At this point we knew that the New Coronavirus was far more deadly than the seasonal flu. Exactly 10x more. It’s 100x more lethal. Actually, it’s about the same as the flu if you’re under 55. But people between the ages of 24 and 26 can die from a spontaneous stroke. If you’re 43 and Native American the Chinese Flu makes you lose feeling in your toes. 13 year-olds lose taste. And if you’re exactly 67 years old, the fatality rate is 105%.
We all learned what Ro, pronounced “Argonaut”, means. It’s the amount of people that are infected across the country, and it’s currently 5.7. Actually, it’s the amount of people on average that a single person infects and it’s 1.4. Turns out that’s a difference of 68 million people infected.
When Ro gets less than one the pandemic is over. And we are close. If it stays above 1 then the pandemic will be here for the remainder of eternity. Or May 1st, whichever comes first.
We were informed that there were people that are already immune, and had these things called antibodies. But some people have antibodies that don’t work. A giant percentage of the population may be immune already. Either that or there is no immunity from Covid–19 at all ever, which is totally ok because those two things sound like similar endings?
We started testing more than any other country in the world. Actually, no. Or, are we?
The tests are 25% to 90% accurate. The new ones are 100% and use a swab.
Based on the fatality rate, the Ro, and the exponential growth rate of the virus which is to the tenth power, we learned that 2.5 Million of us were going to die. Oh wait, 50K of us. Phew! Wait, somewhere in between those two for sure.
Total deaths don’t matter though, which is good. Deaths per capita is what matters. Unless you’re in a rural area, then go by total.
Meanwhile, Italy was getting trounced by the Covid-19 virus. This was because they hug a lot. Or they all have underlying conditions. They eat grain free pasta. It’s because they’re fundamentally a different type of human.
Back in the U.S. New York was emerging as the hotbed. This is because there’s a lot of Italians there. Actually, it’s because it’s dense there. People take cabs. SARS-CoV-2 spreads like wildfire in subway systems. All those falsehoods aside, we’re confident they got the European strain.
We found out San Francisco avoided the fate of New York because they locked down a week earlier. Two weeks. Truth be told, the difference was determined to be their sunny disposition. No big initial clusters. Final answer.
Meanwhile Sweden decided to throw a country-wide rave instead of locking down. Actually, they have a great relationship between citizens and the government, so they started a “quarantrust” in which people still went to school and shopped, but never went near each other or kissed. Sweden has made the right choice, unless you think they haven’t, in which case they’ve clearly not.
We learned more about exactly how this New Coronavirus is spread. It’s primarily transmitted on metal. Predominantly via airborne droplets. These droplets can travel six feet, so we learned if you stayed that far apart you have a 78% chance of living. No, it’s 25 feet. 60 if you’re jogging. 13 feet indoors.
Here are some of the symptoms we’ve identified when you’re infected: Fever, cough, headache. No, sorry that’s not true. Shortness of breath, headache, SIDS, chills, repeated shaking, blue lips, muscle pain, sore throat, loss of taste, superhuman smell, confusion, cankles, failure to parent.
After definitively understanding how it’s spread, and what symptoms feel like, we learned more about how it kills. It gets into the lungs and you die. Actually, it involves a “cytokine storm”. Correction, it kills by reducing the oxygenation levels in your blood. It causes HIV.
As thousands of people started dying, we learned that governments were going to lockdown states. The federal government had this power. It was up to states. Mayors trump governors. We had to follow the guidelines.
When states closed down everyone learned something new about themselves — whether or not they are at all necessary. We called this being “essential”. Barbers could not work. Road pavers could. Doctors could, but only in emergencies. Acupuncturists could, but only if they didn’t wear PPE. Ice cream delivery guy was fine. People in factories had to work more. If you could Zoom you were essential.
Since the governments took away our paychecks they said they’d make it up to us, which they have. We’ll have money coming soon. It’s the PPE. Er, PPP. No, the EDL. The UBI. PUA. We tried to get them all.
The good news though is we know for sure that we have drugs that work on this Novel China Flu. Hydroxychloroquine, lysol, and Plaquenil all work. But Plaquenil is Hydroxychloroquine, and lysol might kill you. Actually all three could. But they show promise.
More sad news though, Cats get Covid. Not dogs. Well, dogs can get it but not transmit it. Unless it’s to cats, then it’s feline fatal.
We found out that there are hundreds of vaccines in the works. We’ll have one of them to market in about 6 months. 6–18 months. We may never have one, but that’s not 100% yet.
While approaching 60k deaths in the United States we learned that a bunch more people have died because of The Sars. Between 20,000 and 200,000 more people. The wide range is based on analysis of obituary sections in local newspapers.
Since the death toll is way lower, we’ve decided It’s safe to open states again. Between 13 and 36 states have already re-opened. The definition of “re-opened” is based on limited gatherings of 15 people max. 5 people. Sorry, 50. You can eat outside.
We’re only halfway through Corona. We’re in the first inning. We’re nearing the peak of the first wave. We’re close to being done with it entirely. We’ve flattened the curve. It’s never leaving. We’re in this together. There’s more definitive knowledge we’ll acquire. 68% more.
I’m just thankful we’re so ahead of this thing.